2020 Tahoe Truckee Market Report Jan-Aug.

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Real Estate

Coldwell Banker 2020 Real Estate Market Report -North Lake Tahoe -Truckee

Residential Properties – Single Family Homes and Condominiums -Activity January – August 2020

Residential Sales Summary 2020

How busy is the local real estate market?  Record shattering . . .

The last 4 months has been the busiest period the Tahoe Truckee real estate market has ever seen.  In mid May activity surged and hasn’t showed any signs of slowing down.  Activity has blown by what we saw in our busiest months last year, and our busiest months on record.

190 Residences went into contract in May of 2020 (compared to 110 in May 2019)
318 Residences went into contract in June of 2020 (compared to 125 in June 2019)
298 Residences went into contract in July (compared to 150 in July 2019)
315 Residences went into contract in August (compared to 170 in August 2019)
208 Residences have gone into contract in the first 22 days of September (compared to 170 in all of September 2019)

Closed sales in July blew past the previous record for the Tahoe Sierra MLS.  292 residences sold in the primary market areas (Emerald Bay to Crystal Bay, Squaw, Alpine, Northstar, Truckee, and Donner Summit).  The previous record for a single month was 182 sales in August 2017.  That’s a 60% increase over the previous busiest month!!  August promptly followed suit with 265 residential sales.  This is second only to July, and 46% higher than the previous record.  September is poised to approach a similar number of closings, and likely October as well.

The 265 August sales is 168% of the 10 year average for the month (158) and 156% of the sales in August 2019 (170).

Year to Date (January through July) 1,115 residences have sold.  That is a 35% increase over the same period last year  (826 sales) and brings us to 131% of the 10 year average for the period (849 residences).  For perspective, at the end of May, we were at just 86% of the 10 year average for closed sales YTD. 

Active Residential Inventory:

Active Listings:  It is typical to see the number of listings peak in early July and then hold steady through Labor Day.  While the number of new listings is actually ahead of what we typically see in May, June, July, and August, the huge number of new contracts is actually dropping the active inventory.  There are currently just 296 residences actively for sale, downfrom 382 residences 3 months ago.  Last year at this time there were 680 residences for sale in Mid September.  So, despite more homes coming on the market, our active inventory is about 44% of what it was a year ago (and typically is at this time of year).

Current Pending Sales:  404 residences are in contract as of September 18.  315 residences went into contract in August.  Compare that to the 296 residences actively for sale and we have less than a 1 month supply of inventory actively on the market!!  Remember that 4 months ago we were at a 12 month supply relative to the previous 30 days of activity?  What a turnaround.

Coldwell Banker Ranks #1:  Among all brokerages in North Lake Tahoe and Truckee, Coldwell Banker continues to rank #1 in total number of sales.  For the previous 12 months, Coldwell Banker represented 14.72% of sales.  This represents 48% more transactions than our next closest competitor (9.97% of sales). 

Median and Average Sales Prices:   These numbers are changing dramatically.  For the period January through June, the median sales price was $674,500 (up slightly from $669,000 last year) and the average sales price was $986,430 (up slightly from $975,296 last year).  For the month of June, the median sales price was $706,875, and the average was $987,193.  For the month of July the median was $803,500 and the average was $1,190,617.  For the month of August the median was $740,000 and the average was $1,105,381.

Looking at single family homes only, the median price has jumped from $691,500 in May to $800,000 in August.  The average has jumped from $948,211 to $1,218,972. 

Sales Under $500,000:  For the period January through July, residences priced under $500,000 represented just over 22% of sales or 189 properties sold.  Of those sales, 103 were condos.  For the same period in 2019 there were 189 properties sold in this price range, 120 of which were condos.

Mid-Range Market Sales $500,000 to $999,999:  For the same period, there were 425 sales between $500,000 and $999,999, representing 50% of total sales.   44 of the sales were condos.  For the same period in 2019, there were 315 sales, including 39 condos.

Luxury Home Sales Over $1 Million:  236 properties have sold over $1 million, representing 28% of total sales.  This is up 55% from the 152 sales in the same period in 2019. 

REO & Short Sales:  Distressed sales have been very rare the last few years.  So far this year, there have been just 3 foreclosure sales.

What’s Going On Looking Forward?

What a wild environment . . . it was just 4 months ago that much of our real estate community was laying off employees and scrambling for loans to maintain operating costs.  Now, we’re shattering records.  We just completed the busiest 4 month period our real estate market has seen . . . and those record shattering numbers started in months that aren’t typically busy in our “normal” market cycles.  Now we are right in the heart of what is typically our “busy” season.

What happens now?  Does it get busier, like it typically does in September, and October?  Or, is the pace too strong to maintain?  The supply side is going to have a lot to say about that.  As you read above, our inventory of homes for sale is just 44% of what it usually is at this time of year.  Add in the fact that inventory normally starts to tail off after Labor Day.  We need an abnormally high amount of new inventory, for the time of year, to maintain the number of sales.  And, so far, that is happening.  So far, in September, new listings are almost 50% higher than they were in September 2019 (210 listings month to date compared to 141 in all of September 2019).  Make no mistake, from what we can see right now, demand is either maintaining or getting stronger.  So, whatever inventory there is will continue to get gobbled up and prices will continue to rise (maybe even faster if inventory gets tighter).

Why is this happening?

The residential real estate market is solid around most of the country for one primary reason . . . right now, HOME is more important than ever.  People are spending more time in their homes than they have before.

In Tahoe, we have a major amplifier to that.  The profile of our typical buyer has evolved.  People have always wanted to be in Tahoe, but that typically meant buying a vacation home (historically 80% of homes here have been non primary residents).  People from the tech industry started to have the ability to move up here, permanently, as much as 20 years ago.  In the last 10 years, high speed internet started to allow other professionals to make Tahoe and Truckee home.  Even Doctors and Lawyers could consolidate their live meetings into a couple days a week in the Bay Area, and then work from home (in Tahoe) the other days, while keeping their family here full time.  The Coronavirus has accelerated that evolution, as people across many industries have been forced to use technology to work from home, and realized they can do it productively.  Also, the businesses themselves are now far more comfortable with employees working remotely.  This has driven demand for homes in Tahoe to all new levels.  People want to be here now . . . and, as long as Lake Tahoe and Truckee is more affordable than the Bay Area, that trend is not likely to change.

Contact Me Today to Find Out More about the Opportunities Available in the North Lake Tahoe-Truckee Market.