Coldwell Banker 2022 Real Estate Market Report - North Lake Tahoe -Truckee
Residential Properties – Single Family Homes and Condominiums -Activity through Q1 2022
Residential Sales Summary 2022 - Total Residential Sales:
The first quarter has come and gone and real estate market activity is perking up. Despite the extreme lack of inventory, we are still seeing a relatively normal number of sales this winter. There were 258 residential sales in the 1st quarter (98 in March), which is about 4% below the 5 year average (268 sales) for the quarter and just slightly above the 10 year average (256). Homes that come on the market are mostly selling fast, with a median of 11 days on market for the 1st quarter, and just 9 days in the month of March.
Median and Average Sales Prices: Sales prices continue to appreciate. Comparing Q1 2020 to Q1 2022, the average sales price of a single family home has jumped from $1,168,175 to $2,363,205 (a 102% increase!), and the median has jumped from $727,500 to $1,375,000 (an 89% increase). Over 30% of single family sales in Q1 were over $2 million, including 17 sales over $5 million, 10 over $10 million, and 1 over $20 million. For comparison, in Q1 2020, just 9% of sales were over $2 million, including 4 over $5 million, and 0 over $10 million.
Active Residential Inventory:
We are up to 110 residences actively for sale (80 single family homes and 30 condos), after bottoming out around 80 last month. This is a bit of an early uptick in the number of homes coming on the market, as it usually starts in late April or early May. That said, inventory is still at the lowest levels we have seen historically, around 1/5th of the 10 year average for this time of year. If you are looking to sell, there is still very little competition in most neighborhoods and most price ranges.
How did inventory get so low? The biggest factor has been incredibly strong demand. Buyers have been whacking away at the inventory at a record pace since May of 2020. The supply side has also contributed. We are now at 11 consecutive months of the number of new listings being below the 5 and 10 year averages for that month. The 116 new listings in March marks the third lowest March total in 10 years. Overall, the number of new listings during the last 11 months is the lowest for that period in 10 years, 22% lower than the 5 year average for the period and 20% lower than the 10 year average.
Current Pending Sales: The number of pending sales is down slightly at 120 (from 123 last month). About 95 residences went into contract in March (up from 75 in February).
Current inventory represents a little over 1 month of supply relative to March activity.
Sales Under $500,000: In Q1 there were 19 residential sales under $500k, representing 7% of total sales. In the same period in 2021, 10% of sales were in this range.
Mid-Range Market Sales $500,000 to $999,999: Year to date, 92 residences sold between $500,000 and $999,999, representing 36% of total sales. For the same period in 2021, 45% of sales were in this price range.
High End Home Sales $1,000,000 to $1,999,999: 89 residences have sold between $1m - $2m, representing 34% of total sales. For the same period in 2021, homes sold in this price range represented 28% of total sales.
Luxury Home Sales Over $2 Million: 56 residences have sold over $2 million, representing 23% of sales. For the same period in 2021, 35 homes sold over $2 million, representing 17% of sales.
What’s Going On Looking Forward?
Despite some new snow this week, ski season is winding down fast and things are looking very green at lake level. It will be an early start to the golf, mountain biking, hiking, and climbing seasons.
As far as the future of the real estate market . . .
Placer County’s short term rental regulations are now in place. The new model includes a cap of 3,900 permits and requires some property owners, who used to be exempt, to apply for permits going forward. Truckee is in the process of developing regulations which will cap the number of permits at 1,255, require a 1 year waiting period for new owners to apply, and will phase out short term rentals in multi-family housing and accessory dwelling units. If you own a short term rental up here, definitely reach out to me so we can connect you to the right information to continue operating your rental!
The shortage of inventory, and lack of new supply, is still the dominant feature in the market. The supply side will truly determine what 2022 looks like. There are also significant variables like the Russia-Ukraine War, short term rental regulations, covid, inflation, interest rates, and mother nature (snow, fires, etc), that are going to have an impact on activity. Our expectation is that supply (new listings and inventory) will be increasing significantly over the next few months, but will remain low for the time of year. If that holds true, the trend toward smaller numbers of transactions will continue. In December, I thought pricing might hold steady this winter. However, the continued tight supply was met with another surge in demand that has prices jumping again. For the last month, 2 to 5 offers has been a common story on many new listings, but we have also seen 10+ offers in some situations. Sellers are still in the driver’s seat and are strengthening their grip on the wheel.
Contact Me Today to Find Out More about the Opportunities Available in the North Lake Tahoe-Truckee Market.
Note: Data on this page is based on information from the Tahoe Sierra Board of Realtors, MLS. Due to MLS reporting methods and allowable reporting policy, this data is only informational and may not be completely accurate. Therefore, Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage does not guarantee the data's accuracy. Data maintained by the MLS may not reflect all real estate activity in the market. CA-BRE License # 1908304