Tahoe Truckee Real Estate Market Report - Jan-Nov

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Market Trends

Coldwell Banker - 2020 Real Estate Market Report

North Lake Tahoe -Truckee - Residential Properties – Single Family Homes and Condominiums

Residential Sales Summary 2020

Total Residential Sales:  

More residences sold in the last 6 months (1,507) than in any full year but 1 since 2006 (in 2017 there were 1,567 residential sales).

The last 6 months has been, by far, the busiest period our market has ever seen.  In mid May activity surged and has maintained at record levels since.

Prior to 2020, the record for number of sales in a single month was 182 (August 2017).  We have blown by that number in each of the last 5 months. 

In July 292 residences sold (60% higher than the old record)
In August 265 residences sold (46% higher than the old record)
In September 288 residences sold (58% higher).
In October 266 residences sold (46% higher).  
In November 216 residences sold (19% higher).

Do you want some more perspective on how busy things have been?

The 216 November sales represents a 57% increase over the 138 sales in November 2019.  It is also 77% higher than the 10 year average for November.

Year to Date (January through November) 1,900 residences have sold.  That is 36% more sales than the entire year of 2019 (when there were 1,399 sales).  It is also a 47% increase over the same period last year  (1,293 sales) and brings us to 157% of the 10 year average for the period (1,212).  Remember, at the end of May this year, we were at just 86% of the 10 year average for closed sales YTD. 

Active Residential Inventory:

Active Listings:  There are currently 202 residences actively for sale, down from 433 at this time last year.  Contrary to what you might think at first glance, the number of new listings in 2020 is actually up almost 20% compared to the same period last year.  Typically the number of new listings dwindles after Labor Day.  However, this year, properties continued coming on the market through September and October in hopes of taking advantage of the strong seller’s market.  There were twice as many new listings in September and October as there were in those 2 months last year.  November finally normalized and we saw a similar number of listings to last year (108 v 117).  So, despite significantly more homes coming on the market, our active inventory is less than 50% of what it was a year ago.

Current Pending Sales:  To achieve record sales, you have to have record numbers of residences going into contract . . .  currently 230 residences are in contract.  Here are the numbers of how many residences have been going into contract each month this year . . .

190 Residences went into contract in May of 2020 (compared to 110 in May 2019)
318 Residences went into contract in June of 2020 (compared to 125 in June 2019)
298 Residences went into contract in July (compared to 150 in July 2019)
315 Residences went into contract in August (compared to 170 in August 2019)
281 Residences went into contract in September (compared to 170 in all of September 2019)
219 Residences went into contract in October (compared to 130 in October 2019)
143 Residences went into contract in November (compared to 93 in November 2019)
Current inventory represents about 1 month of supply, relative to the last 5 months of activity.

Coldwell Banker Ranks #1:  Among all brokerages in North Lake Tahoe and Truckee, Coldwell Banker continues to rank #1 in total number of sales.  For the previous 12 months, Coldwell Banker represented 12.8% of sales.  This represents 21% more transactions than our next closest competitor (10.5% of sales). 

Median and Average Sales Prices:   These numbers are changing dramatically.  For the period January through June, the median sales price was $674,500 (up slightly from $669,000 last year) and the average sales price was $986,430 (up slightly from $975,296 last year).  Since July, we have jumped to a median of $825,000 (up 22% compared to the first half of the year) and an average of $1,209,097 (up 23%).  In November, the median price was $844,000 and the average price was $1,235,000.

Sales Under $500,000:  For the period January through November, residences priced under $500,000 represented just over 18% of sales or 348 properties sold.  For the same period in 2019, 27% of sales were in this range. 

Mid-Range Market Sales $500,000 to $999,999:  For the same period, there were 948 sales between $500,000 and $999,999, representing 50% of total sales.   For the same period in 2019, 49% of sales were in this price range.

Luxury Home Sales Over $1 Million:  604 properties have sold over $1 million, representing 32% of total sales.  This is up 95% from the 309 sales in the same period in 2019 (which made up 24% of total sales)

What’s Going On Looking Forward?

In most years, activity slows in late fall.  219 residences going into contract in October represents a significant slow down from the summer months, when close to 300 residences went into contract each month.  While this is a slowing of activity, it is still 68% more new contracts than in October 2019.  November “slowed” even further to 143 residences going into contract, but this is still 54% more new contracts than November last year.  So, yes, we are experiencing the “normal” seasonal slow down, but the activity is still abnormally high for the time of year. 

Looking at current demand, it seems like this could continue for a long time.  However, it will be very interesting to see what happens with the supply side this winter.  Currently inventory is so low that it is clearly constraining the number of possible transactions.  As an example, the regions largest neighborhood, Tahoe Donner, has just 7 homes for sale (there are over 5,000 homes in the neighborhood!).  The lowest priced home is at $795k, and there are just 3 homes for sale under $1 million (there were zero under $1 million at one point last week).  For perspective, in 2019 the median sales price was $719,000!  It’s really difficult to continue such a high number of sales when there is such a limited supply.

Why are we seeing such extraordinary dynamics in our housing market?

The residential real estate market is solid around most of the country for one primary reason . . . right now, HOME is more important than ever.  People are spending more time in their homes than they have before.

In Tahoe, we have a major amplifier to that.  The profile of our typical buyer has evolved.  People have always wanted to be in Tahoe, but that typically meant buying a vacation home (historically 80% of homes here have been non primary residents).  People from the tech industry started to have the ability to move up here, permanently, as much as 20 years ago.  In the last 10 years, high speed internet started to allow other professionals to make Tahoe and Truckee home.  Even Doctors and Lawyers could consolidate their live meetings into a couple days a week in the Bay Area, and then work from home (in Tahoe) the other days, while keeping their family here full time.  The Coronavirus has accelerated that evolution, as people across many industries have been forced to use technology to work from home, and realized they can do it productively.  Also, the businesses themselves are now far more comfortable with employees working remotely.  This has driven demand for homes in Tahoe to all new levels.  People want to be here now . . . and, as long as Lake Tahoe and Truckee is more affordable than the Bay Area, that trend is not likely to change.

Contact Me Today to Find Out More about the Opportunities Available in the North Lake Tahoe-Truckee Market.

Note: Data on this page is based on information from the Tahoe Sierra Board of Realtors, MLS.  Due to MLS reporting methods and allowable reporting policy, this data is only informational and may not be completely accurate.  Therefore, Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage does not guarantee the data's accuracy.  Data maintained by the MLS may not reflect all real estate activity in the market.  CA-BRE License # 1908304